Mikey Madison as Ani and Mark Eydelshteyn as Ivan in Anora. Courtesy of Neon
Last month, when I wrote about this being one of the most wide-open Oscar races in years, I assumed a frontrunner would quickly emerge from the pack. For a brief period it seemed that Emilia Pérez, the brash and divisive cartel musical, would be that film. It earned 13 nominations, the same as classics like Gone with the Wind and Forrest Gump, and was the odds-on favorite in multiple categories. Four wins at the Golden Globes in January felt like an early bellwether and it seemed Netflix’s longtime quest for a Best Picture winner was set to bear fruit. And then came the tweets.
Years before Karla Sofía Gascón was cast as the lead in Emilia Pérez, she treated her X account something like a 4chan board, frequently attacking Muslims and diversity efforts, and at one point referring to George Floyd as a “drug-addicted swindler.” She issued multiple apologies, but the scandal has already overshadowed her history-making nomination as the first-ever trans actor in the Best Actress category. Now, when she appears at this Sunday’s ceremony, her presence will mainly serve as an uncomfortable reminder of the industry’s limits at battling hate.
Emilia Pérez hasn’t been completely knocked off course by the controversy surrounding its star, though. Zoë Saldaña is the firm favorite to win Best Supporting Actress while the film will likely be named Best International Feature (historically, films nominated in both Best Picture and Best International Feature Film generally win the latter). The fallout from the Gascón incident means that the chances of seeing the Best Picture going to the film that gave the world “La Vaginoplastia” are looking slim. And for many reasons, that might be for the best.
As far as I see it, it’s a two-way race between Anora and The Brutalist for Best Picture. With its epic runtime and weighty themes tackling immigration, the American dream, and what it means to pursue artistic excellence, The Brutalist dresses up classic themes favored by the Oscars in arthouse clothing. It would not be a surprise if this design worked for Academy voters across the board. Anora, on the other hand, is a screwball comedy updated for the 21st century with a truly star-making turn from Mikey Madison as a sex worker navigating a whirlwind relationship with a Russian oligarch’s son. Director Sean Baker is an indie darling whose previous films (Tangerine, The Florida Project, Red Rocket) established him as an empathetic and deft storyteller of working class America. A vote for Anora would mean backing both a great film and a beloved director enjoying long overdue mainstream recognition, an appealing combination.
Madison’s role as the titular gum-chewing, nail-clacking hero of Anora, is the driving force behind the movie’s breakout success. She is nominated for Best Actress and has spent awards season being heralded for her performance, collecting awards at both the BAFTAs and Independent Spirit Awards. The main competition standing in her way of being the youngest Best Actress nominee since Emma Stone in 2016 is Demi Moore, whose unwavering role in The Substance made it one of the most memorable movies of the year. It’s a tough call, but I say Mikey Madison just about edges it. She lights up Anora and delivers a true star-is-born performance.
As for Best Actor, look no further than Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. He won at the BAFTAs, as well as picked up statues at the Critics' Choice Awards and Golden Globes, making him a safe bet to win his second Oscar, 22 years after he won for The Pianist in 2003. And yet there is a small part of me (maybe just looking for some drama in an otherwise dull Best Actor race) that says… what about Timothée Chalamet? The hypebeast Bob Dylan has had a near flawless awards season, going viral on multiple red carpets and even singing live on Saturday Night Live. These things are separate from his work in A Complete Unknown but they do factor into voters' minds when they go to cast their ballots. His win at the SAG Awards this past weekend is an indication that things could go his way, but no one will be surprised if Brody takes home the award on Sunday.
Looking for surprise when things seem predictable is a side-effect of Oscar-watching, though. Things you can expect to see on Sunday? Kieran Culkin winning Best Supporting Actor, some extremely muted applause for Karla Sofía Gascón, and Cynthia Erivo hitting the back of the Dolby Theater when she belts out that riff from Wicked alongside Ariana Grande. As for everything else? Well, in a year when no narrative has ever truly settled into place, it’s all refreshingly up in the air.
